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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers rising together. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still